Using Energy Scenarios to Inform Decarbonization Planning

Energy scenarios can clarify future hydrocarbon transport and emissions.

From hydrocarbon forecasts to corporate emissions models, scenario-based analysis helps decision-makers compare pathways and plan for the energy transition.

Planning for climate risk and decarbonization requires more than setting a target. Decision-makers need to understand how future conditions could affect energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, operating costs, infrastructure, and environmental risk.

Greene Economics draws on decades of experience in climate-related economic analysis, from flood risks and changing temperatures to emissions forecasting and decarbonization pathways. We use economic analysis, forecasting, and scenario-based tools to test assumptions, compare options, and plan for change.

Two recent projects illustrate this approach.

Global energy scenarios and oil in the sea

Greene Economics worked with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on its Oil in the Sea IV: Inputs, Fates, and Effects study. The study updates earlier National Academies assessments of the sources, quantities, fates, and effects of fossil fuel hydrocarbons entering the marine environment. (Update: The National Academies subsequently published the final report on December 22, 2022.)

For the study, our team compiled and analyzed historic data on global fossil fuel production, consumption, and transportation dating to 1970. We developed forecasts of hydrocarbon production and consumption from 2020 to 2050 under three scenarios:

• Current trends

• Partial decarbonization

• Full decarbonization

  
  

The scenarios show how different policy, technology, and market conditions could shape future demand for and movement of hydrocarbons.

This analysis helped the Oil in the Sea IV study committee consider how alternative decarbonization pathways could affect hydrocarbon transportation and inputs to the marine environment. The final report identifies continuing risks from petroleum hydrocarbons while noting that the energy transition may introduce new fuels, infrastructure, and environmental and safety questions.

Emissions forecasting for decarbonization planning

Greene Economics is also working with KERAMIDA to develop a decarbonization-planning tool for a multinational corporation pursuing net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045.

The work combines an emissions forecast with an assessment of carbon-reduction strategies. The model estimates Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions under different mitigation assumptions, helping decision-makers compare potential pathways and understand the results.

Interviews with stakeholders across the organization inform the model inputs and ensure that the analysis reflects operational conditions and constraints. The resulting dashboard will allow users to adjust key assumptions and review outputs in tables and figures, supporting more informed planning.

Turning net-zero targets into decisions

A net-zero target is an important starting point, but organizations must still answer key questions: Which actions will reduce emissions? When should they occur? What assumptions drive the results? How might changes in technology, markets, regulation, or operations alter the preferred pathway?

Scenario-based models make those questions visible. They allow organizations to compare options, test assumptions, and translate climate commitments into planning.

Have climate risk, decarbonization, or planning questions for our team? Contact us.